the taliban are extremely divided. and it is not clear whether they're even sincere about the talks or using them as a tactic. i'll be honest with you. i think at the end of the day, you're going to have the taliban once again have a role in afghanistan, particularly in the south, where they have all the ethnic ties. they're going to be part of afghanistan's future. what is not obvious, though, is that the taliban, even after they come back, are going to once again establish a close relationship with al qaeda. it is quite possible that they learned their lesson. what this suggests is you could have an afghanistan which does not provide sanctuary to al qaeda, to any significant degree, but will also be an afghanistan that kind of looks messy, that looks tribal, that has all these ethnic and geographic divisions and in some ways looks quite a bit like the afghanistan before the united states invested this decade of effort. >> did something jump out at you, richard, you watched this afghanistan story for a long time, from